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Who Benefits from a War Now?

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The border dispute between Venezuela and Guyana over the Esequibo region has been a source of tension between the two countries for over a century. The dispute centers on a 62,000-square-mile (160,000-square-kilometer) of a very rich territory claimed by both countries.

Here’s the background of the dispute with Guyana

The dispute dates back to the 19th century when the United Kingdom granted Guyana independence from British rule. Venezuela disputed the validity of the treaty, arguing that the region has been part of its territory since the independence wars. This is an absolute truth. Indeed, in the antique maps, it was registered and never was objected…until centuries later.

The dispute was never resolved, and it has remained a source of tension between the two countries. It didn´t help that Uncle Hugo never had the nerve to claim it, busy as he was against the “Evil Empire” and dribbling hot air all over the world. He was aware that military actions would be so serious that every single component of the Communal State would be dismantled, and it would be back again to be a real Republic.

In recent years, the dispute has become bitter, as both countries have discovered oil and gas reserves in the region. In 2022, Guyana awarded a contract to Exxon Mobil to explore for oil in the Esequibo region. This move angered the Venezuelan bus driver’s gang, which proceeded to threaten with “actions” against Guyana.

Here are some of the key factors that are contributing to the tensions between Venezuela and Guyana:

  • The discovery of oil and gas reserves in the Esequibo region has made the territory even more valuable.
  • The increasing militarization of the border area has raised the risk of conflict. Of course, this is a very rich and isolated area and the military elite is already highly experienced in looting gold mines in the region.

The dispute is a complex issue with no easy solution. The territory belonging to Venezuela is even larger than all the extensions of the Guyana country!

The maps are there and have been since the Spaniards drew them.

In practical terms, it´s like if Mexico says overnight that the rest of the US territory should be attached to their country.

Sadly, it is likely to continue to be a source of tension between Venezuela and Guyana for many years to come.

But what are the real intentions in firing up this conflict again?

The dispute has also led to a supposed increased military activity in the region. Both countries have deployed troops to the border area. Supposedly, of course.

You can’t take whatever this sort of regime so literally.

People who know the entrails of the beast can say that know exactly what the real intentions are.

  1. To use the “war” as an excuse to instate martial law (in a year where a democratic election would wipe them off in a leveled playground) and subjugate whoever opposed the orders of the uniformed elite.
  2. Destroy whatever shadow of resistance and hope of a democratic change for the next 30 years, installing a new elite 2.0 to rule with an iron fist and wiping off the slightest desire for rebellion.
  3. To instate a defacto military-ruled regime, and the bus driver will quit because of “health reasons” or some other BS. Maybe another fake election to deceive those foolish enough to go.

The United States and the United Kingdom have been involved in mediation efforts to resolve the dispute. However, these efforts have so far been unsuccessful because there is no real intention to solve anything. They are looking for trouble, trying to throw a smoke curtain like the one used by the Cubans in this article.

In reality, this turns the opposition into cannon fodder.

The dispute has been treated as a major source of instability in the region, but common people in the streets know the truth.

If someday things get hot, the first recruits to draft will be the opposition youngsters. Just like Russia did: sending non-sympathizers as cannon fodder and getting in jail those who refused to invade Ukraine for “treason.”

Talking about killing two birds with a single shot…

It is unclear how this dispute will be resolved, but it is likely to continue to be a source of tension between the bus driver’s cronies (they are NOT the whole of Venezuela and don’t represent the citizens, nor the country as they were NOT democratically elected by the Venezuelans) and Guyana for many years to come.

The consequences of war in Venezuela

The Republic of Venezuela is facing an unprecedented economic and social crisis. In a period after inflation reached hyperinflation levels, when poverty inequality increased dramatically, the lack of basic services in some areas is still a reality. Power rationing has been in place at least once or twice per week, lasting up to 5 hours. (As a side note, people (yet) don´t need solar panels so badly; a battery rack with grid juice would be more than enough for these circumstances, and it wouldn’t impact too much the power bill)

In this context, the possibility of a war becomes a real threat that could have devastating consequences for the country. This could be a direct blowback.

Some specific consequences of a war in Venezuela could be the following:

  • Deaths and injuries: It is estimated that a war in Venezuela could cause hundreds of thousands of deaths and injuries. Of course, this would be a plus for the regime: fewer people to control.
  • Migration: The war could trigger a new wave of Venezuelan migration, already at record levels.
  • Infrastructure destruction: The war could destroy critical infrastructure, such as roads, bridges, airports, and ports.
  • Trade disruption: The war could disrupt trade between Venezuela and the rest of the world.
  • Capital flight: The war could trigger capital flight, causing an economic crisis.

How many uniforms would be willing in their comfort zone to jump into a direct conflict?

A war in Venezuela would have an immediate impact on the already limping economy. The further destruction of infrastructure beyond the actual levels, the disruption of trade, and the flight of capital would lead to an even further decline in the gross domestic product (GDP). It´s not like investors are knocking at the door with the current draconian laws these days, after all…

This would translate into an increase in even more poverty, more inequality, and the already shortages of food and medicine, this time under the excuse of martial law and “war,” so a sector of the uniforms will manage by force the black market generated. All of this while the rest of the world is distracted chasing butterflies.

The war would also harm Venezuelan society in ways that have not been experienced in a long time. Forced recruitment, violence, and repression would become a daily reality. Afterwards, an increase in crime, insecurity, and political instability turned the country into yet another hot spot in South America.

Unpopular regimes start wars to stay in power.

History shows us that unpopular regimes have resorted to war to stay in power. A clear example is that of the Soviet Union, which launched an invasion of Afghanistan in 1979 to prevent the collapse of the Afghan communist regime. The war was a failure for the Soviet Union and contributed to its eventual dissolution.

Another example is that of the Democratic Republic of the Congo, which has been in a civil war since 1998. The war has caused the deaths of millions of people and displaced millions more. The conflict has impeded the country’s development and contributed to regional instability.

In the case of Venezuela, an unpopular regime that resorts to war to stay in power would likely face significant resistance from the population. This could lead to a prolonged and bloody conflict that would have devastating consequences for the country.

How to prepare for martial law and war between Venezuela and Guyana

Tensions between Venezuela and Guyana over the Esequibo territorial dispute have increased in recent years, raising concerns among citizens of both countries about the possibility of an armed conflict. If martial law is declared in Venezuela and war breaks out with Guyana, Venezuelan citizens would face several challenges, including:

  • Restrictions on freedom of movement: Martial law often involves restricting the freedom of movement of citizens. This could include curfews, travel controls, and bans on public gatherings.
  • Interruption of basic services: War could disrupt basic services such as electricity, water, and public transportation. This could make everyday life difficult for citizens and increase the risk of disease.
  • Shortages of food and medicine: War could lead to shortages of food and medicine, which could put the health and lives of citizens at risk.

To prepare for the consequences of martial law the steps are logical:

  • Stockpile food and medicine: A good reserve of food and medicine, as big as possible. This will help ensure that one has what one needs when basic services are disrupted.
  • An emergency plan and some backups: having an emergency plan is paramount. This allows us to know what to do in case martial law is declared or war breaks out without even thinking about it. This plan should include: 
    • Information on how to get updated intel,
    • How to evacuate the area home,
    • How to care for yourself and your family.
  • Staying informed: This will help people to make informed decisions about how to prepare for a possible conflict. Any odd situation like a blackout for too long or the Internet getting cut should be considered a trigger for the bugging-out protocols.
  • Prepare an emergency kit: Most of us preppers know the drill: food, water, medicine, personal hygiene items, and other essential supplies.

The consequences of an all-open war are so serious that can have a devastating impact on people’s lives. Word in the streets is that is just another dumb attempt of a bluff to avoid a power transmission to the democratic parties, which will result in indictments, trials, and jail for all those who stole the Venezuelans’ money.

Time will tell, but Venezuelans should be preparing…just in case the fireworks start.

You never know what can happen with unstable, deranged people holding heavy weaponry.

What are your thoughts?

Were you aware of these troop movements? Did you know about the border conflict between Venezuela and Guyana? Do you think an all-out war will erupt? And if so, how will other countries take advantage in order to control this oil-rich region?

Let’s discuss it in the comments.

About Jose

Jose is an upper middle class professional. He is a former worker of the oil state company with a Bachelor’s degree from one of the best national Universities. He has an old but in good shape SUV, a good 150 square meters house in a nice neighborhood, in a small but (formerly) prosperous city with two middle size malls. Jose is a prepper and shares his eyewitness accounts and survival stories from the collapse of his beloved Venezuela. Jose and his younger kid are currently back in Venezuela, after the intention of setting up a new life in another country didn’t  go well. The SARSCOV2 re-shaped the labor market and South American economy so he decided to give it a try to homestead in the mountains, and make a living as best as possible. But this time in his own land, and surrounded by family, friends and acquaintances, with all the gear and equipment collected, as the initial plan was.

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