Bitcoin’s failure to rebound off strong support levels increases the risk of a deeper correction that could also negatively impact altcoins.
After failing to sustain above the resistance of its narrow range, Bitcoin (BTC) fell near a key support on July 18. The consolidation of the past few days seems to be an accumulation phase, according to Glassnode’s Bitcoin Accumulation Trend Score. A similar score was seen during the accumulation phases between November to December and again from March to April.
According to CoinShares data, institutional investors continue to plow funds into digital asset investment products, which rose to $742 million in the past four weeks. Bitcoin continues to attract the lion’s share of the funds, with last week alone accounting for $140 million in inflows.
Morgan Creek Capital chief investment officer and founder Mark Yusko said in an interview with Cointelegraph that Bitcoin’s fair value is $55,000 and the markets are likely to “drift upwards toward that level.” Once this level is crossed, Yusko expects speculators to step in, resulting in a blow-off top sometime in 2024.
What are the important support levels that need to hold in Bitcoin and altcoins to prevent a deeper decline? Let’s study the charts of the top-10 cryptocurrencies to find out.
Bitcoin price analysis
Bitcoin slid below the 20-day exponential moving average ($30,124) on July 17 and tested the crucial support of $29,500 on July 18. The long tail on the day’s candlestick shows that lower levels continue to attract buyers.
The 20-day EMA is flat and the relative strength index (RSI) is near the midpoint, indicating a balance between supply and demand. If buyers force the price above the 20-day EMA, the BTC/USDT pair could rally to $31,000 and then to $31,805. Sellers are expected to protect this zone with vigor.
The next trending move could begin on a break above $32,400 or a drop below $29,500. If the range breaks below $29,500, the pair may plunge to $27,500 and later to $26,000. On the contrary, if bulls push the price above $32,400, the pair may start a rally toward $40,000.
Ether price analysis
The long tail on Ether’s (ETH) July 17 and 18 candlestick shows that the bulls are buying the dips to the 50-day SMA ($1,853).
This suggests that the ETH/USDT pair could remain stuck between the 50-day SMA and $2,000 for a while longer. A minor positive in favor of the bulls is that the 20-day EMA ($1,898) is sloping up gradually and the RSI is in the positive territory. If buyers catapult the price above $2,000, the pair may start the next leg of the up-move to $2,141.
However, the bears are likely to have other plans. They will try to yank the price below the 50-day SMA. If they do that, the pair may collapse to $1,700 and eventually to $1,626.
XRP price analysis
Generally, a vertical rally is followed by a sharp pullback and a period of consolidation. XRP (XRP) could be entering one such phase.
The bulls will try to drive the price above $0.83 and retest the July 13 intraday high of $0.94 but they are likely to encounter stiff resistance from the bears. If the price turns down from $0.83, the XRP/USDT pair could tumble to $0.66.
This level may again attract strong buying by the bulls. That could keep the price range-bound between $0.66 and $0.83 for a few days. Contrarily, if bulls propel the price above $0.94, the pair could start a rally to $1.40.
BNB price analysis
The bulls failed to push and sustain BNB (BNB) above the 20-day EMA ($244) in the past two days. This suggests that the bears are trying to flip the 20-day EMA into resistance.
The bears will try to strengthen their position further by pulling the price to the support line of the symmetrical triangle. This is an important level for the bulls to defend because a break below it could challenge the vital support at $220.
Alternatively, if bulls shove the price above the 20-day EMA, it will suggest solid buying at lower levels. The bulls will then make one more attempt to thrust the price above the triangle. If they can pull it off, the BNB/USDT pair could rise to $265.
Cardano price analysis
Cardano (ADA) is likely to witness a tough battle between the bulls and the bears near the breakout level of $0.30.
The 20-day EMA ($0.30) is sloping up gradually and the RSI is in the positive zone, indicating that bulls have a slight edge. Buyers will have to kick the price above $0.34 to suggest that the correction may be over. The ADA/USDT pair could then ascend to $0.38 where the bears may again mount a strong defense.
This positive view could be negated if the price turns down and plunges below $0.30. That will clear the path for a possible decline to the uptrend line and then to $0.26.
Solana price analysis
The long wick on the candlesticks between July 14 to 17 shows that bears continue to sell on rallies. The price turned down and slipped below the breakout level of $27.12 on July 17.
The SOL/USDT pair could correct to the 20-day EMA ($23.15), which is an important level to keep an eye on. If the price rebounds off this level, the bulls will again try to propel the pair above $27.12. If they succeed, the pair may advance to $29.12 and subsequently to $32.13.
Contrary to this assumption, if the price turns down and breaks below the 20-day EMA, it will suggest that the bulls are rushing to the exit. The pair could then plummet to the 50-day SMA ($19.44).
Dogecoin price analysis
Buyers pushed Dogecoin (DOGE) above the overhead resistance of $0.07 on July 17 and again on July 19 but the long wick on the candlestick shows strong selling at higher levels.
The bulls have managed to keep the DOGE/USDT pair above the 20-day EMA ($0.07) but they are struggling to overcome the overhead obstacle. If buyers fail to maintain the price above $0.07, the likelihood of a drop below the 50-day SMA ($0.07) increases.
That could keep the pair range-bound between $0.06 and $0.07 for a few more days. If bulls want to start a new up-move, they will have to hold the price above $0.07. The pair may then climb to $0.08 and later to $0.10.
Related: SEC vs. Ripple: Huge win for crypto
Polygon price analysis
Polygon (MATIC) bounced off the 20-day EMA ($0.73) on July 17 but the bulls could not sustain the higher levels. This suggests that every relief rally is being sold into.
The moving averages are an important support to keep an eye on. If bears sink the price below the 50-day SMA ($0.71), the advantage will tilt in favor of the sellers. The MATIC/USDT pair may then slump to $0.60.
The first resistance to watch on the upside is $0.80. If bulls drive the price above this level, the pair could retest the $0.89 level. A break and close above this resistance could signal the start of a new uptrend.
Litecoin price analysis
Litecoin (LTC) turned down from the overhead resistance at $106 on July 13, indicating that the bears are selling on rallies.
The failure of the bulls to arrest the pullback at the 20-day EMA ($94) suggests that the positive momentum has weakened. There is a minor support at the 50-day SMA ($90) but if this level gives way, the LTC/USDT pair could dump to $80.
If bulls want to prevent the decline, they will have to push and maintain the price above the 20-day EMA. If they do that, the pair may again retest the overhead resistance zone between $106 and $115.
Polkadot price analysis
Polkadot (DOT) has been swinging between the overhead resistance of $5.64 and the 50-day SMA ($5.03) for the past few days.
The flattish 20-day EMA ($5.21) and the RSI near the midpoint suggest a balance between supply and demand. If the price sinks below the 50-day SMA, the advantage will tilt in favor of the sellers. The DOT/USDT pair could then slide to $4.74. This is an important level for the bulls to defend because if it cracks, the pair may slump to $4.22.
On the upside, the bulls will have to clear the zone between $5.64 and the downtrend line to gain the upper hand. The pair could then skyrocket to $7.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.