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Thankfully, the worst is behind the good people of Rio Grande do Sul state after the most tragic flood in four generations (more on that in a moment, and if you missed the previous article, you can find it here). However, in the aftermath, things haven’t yet returned to normal: they’re still digging out cars, equipment, people, and animals, and they are only now starting to rebuild the infrastructure. The region’s main airport should only reopen fully by the end of 2024.
Estimates say more than 200.000 cars, or 10% of the state’s fleet, went underwater, a massive loss for owners and insurance companies, to the point it has impacted the whole nation’s market. It’s similar to the impact Hurricane Katrina had on the US economy,
My friend’s family has returned to their home, still counting the material losses and financial setbacks. But he’s returned to work and the kids to school so they’re grateful for that and staying positive. Recovering and cleaning of the house and goods will cost a chunk of money, but it’s now a matter of time. Most people in the areas affected are in the same situation.
I sent him some cleaning supplies. They did have a hard time dealing with insects as predicted, but not for long: it’s winter in South America, and temperatures dropped as it was beginning to dry. Diseases, however, are still a problem. We’ve been speaking and exchanging thoughts and stories since the last article, so here are our final considerations about floods, natural disasters, and prepping in general.
In 1941, it rained nonstop for 22 days, causing a major flood in Rio Grande do Sul. The waters reached 15,6 feet high, taking down the power and water supply in the capital and other cities. The telegraph also stopped working, hampering search and rescue communications and isolating the state. It took days for other parts of the country to become aware of the situation.
During the 1970s, the government invested in anti-flood measures to contain the waters of Guaíba River. There are more than 42 miles of dikes, 14 relief ports, 23 pumps, and relief ditches along the river’s margins as it crosses the capital, Porto Alegre. However, thanks to incompetence, bureaucracy, and corruption of continuous leftist administrations, the motors operating the ports have been stolen, and only four of those pumps are working. That’s what I mean when I talk about Thirdworldization.
The lesson here is SHTF can strike more than once, and it pays to go back in history and dig up the natural disaster track record of the region you live in or plan to move to. Research the authorities’ response, too, not to rely on state support but to draw your action plan. Even if the information revealed doesn’t change your decisions, for whatever reason, at the very least, you know what can happen and prepare accordingly.
Every effort, every task, even the most basic ones such as resting or eating, takes another dimension during a disaster. I’ve mentioned that in my post about the North Shore landslides, but this can compound as the situation doesn’t improve (or worsens), and the days and weeks pass.
We must take that into account and prepare for the friction that builds in any emergency plan. There are ways to practice disaster and crisis preparedness; Selco constantly mentions adding “complicators” to our training because, during a disaster, everything will be a complication, an obstacle to overcome, and it’s true.
Support in all forms will vary not according to the needs but in direct relation to the attention given by the media. Depending on the severity of the disaster, every news outlet will provide coverage of the event, the drama of the population, and the rescuing efforts, sometimes for weeks or even months. All that attention will result in greater support.
The whole fauna of politicians, artists, influencers, and personalities will flock to the site. I’m not criticizing. That’s good and necessary because it draws widespread attention and support from the media and official powers. Even foreign nations will send their help, and the bottom line is every ounce of support is essential, so that’s welcome.
However, as time passes, interest and attention will wear out, commotion will wane, people will move on, and other things will happen and steal the spotlight. Volunteers will get tired and get replaced at a slower rate (or not at all). The political infighting will resume, and commercial interests will go back to the surface, those things. In a way, that’s life returning to normal. It has to, at some point. But there will still be many people and animals in need: shelters and support centers are packed, and many families, individuals, and businesses require support to resume operations.
That’s a reminder that preparation is a marathon, and so is the recovery phase of a natural disaster or other SHTF. Learn to dose efforts and stockpiles, and be prepared materially, physically, and mentally for the long run. Survival is one thing; recovering is another. Also, if you’re a volunteer, don’t give 100% at once and burn everything too quickly. Your strength will be needed later on, and that aid may be even more valuable in the phases post-disaster.
Early on, everything is chaos and confusion. Almost no one knows what’s going on, what to do, where to go. Some people will believe anything a government says in any disaster (pandemic, war, etc.). Others will do the opposite of that. Only a few will keep their senses, think critically, and chase the truth, which frankly is very hard when we’re overwhelmed, scared, and fighting for survival.
Expect little or nothing from the government and the media. Yeah, we know that, but they knew, too, and still fell for it, so it’s worth a reminder. The warnings came when the water was already too high, and even then, the authorities were vague and didn’t sound as serious as the situation required. It also took a while for the media to catch up on the gravity of the incident. Therefore, large parts of the population sat and waited while external aid took longer to mobilize and arrive.
My friend missed the escape window, too. They’ve never been in that situation before; Brazil is a tropical country; storms and even minor floods are common almost everywhere this time of the year. But he never stopped paying attention to the rain and, as preparation, had his wife and kids put together a few bags with clothes, food, and emergency items (flashlights, powerbanks, etc.). As soon as he noticed the waters rising, he arranged for them to leave. Unfortunately, the water started to rise too fast, and they couldn’t use the car, but he had a plan B, and that worked well.
Here are the lessons that can be taken from the above observations.
It’s the Fourth Turning, folks. This is how things will run for the next years.
This aspect always causes revolt in these situations, but the script is always the same, so don’t expect anything different and prepare accordingly. It’s simply the law of supply and demand: during a large-scale disaster, anyone possessing food, water, first aid, and any necessary item in good shape will raise prices.
This fundamental law of the free market is seen as exploitation by the people in need, the media, and the rest of the population. The farther from the epicenter, the more people care about ethics and moral, but the rules change when survival is at take. There’s no way to enforce anything different, either; only a surplus would cause prices to drop, but obviously, that isn’t possible when the population and authorities are in dire need of donations and external assistance.
So far, my friend has avoided that sort of inflation thanks to his preparations. He lost some furniture, appliances, and maybe even his car (it’s unclear at the moment). Still, they have been able to keep relatively safe staying with their relatives, particularly when compared to others who lost everything but what they had on them. They’re alive and well, that’s what matters.
When SHTF, some try to survive and some to thrive. It’s inevitable, no matter where you live, and it happens much sooner and much worse than people think. It’s something to worry about and prepare for. Early on, they had power, and city lights were on, but it became intermittent and started to fail in a couple of days. Then it started.
I’m working on a piece about organized crime and how it impacts a decadent society (Thirdworldization), but for now, there were countless reports of factions denying volunteers and authorities access to their territory, hijacking jet skis, boats and other equipment used by the teams, to escape and transport their items since no other vehicle is moving.
Also, there were reports of murders, rapes and child abuse. Some have been caught and almost lynched on site. Criminal acts against a population suffering in a disaster caused great anger and revolt, even more so than when everything is normal. Vigilante justice becomes a thing during these events.
If we cannot count on governments to help us when things are good, it isn’t reasonable to count on official aid when disaster strikes. That’s only partly due to the mediocrity, incompetence, and malice of authorities but also because official institutions are marred by bureaucracy, inertia, ego, and competition. Everything is slow.
Members of the Armed Forces had to be rescued by civilians. The fire brigade and civil defense refused to send in their helicopters and jet skis, alleging “they would get damaged.” All that while civilians made available dozens of private helis, jets, trucks, and much more without hesitation. It’s a shameful show of incompetence, cowardice, and upside-down priorities by those whose job is to provide aid and support in these moments, and a brilliant display of capacity and solidarity by the civil society and private individuals.
That may seem to go against what I said in my post about the North Shore landslides of 2023 and the state’s power in these situations, but the truth is that not all governments and leaders are the same when managing disasters. So, look at your leaders and assess their character and personality to know how things will run if something happens.
My friend never thought he’d have to leave his home. He was prepared but not for a flood of such magnitude, which had never happened in his city or in his lifetime. He’s a shelter-in-place prepper, as perhaps most of us are, but quick-rising waters forced him to change plans and strategies.
Fortunately, he had his affairs in order and knew what to do: as soon as he saw how quickly the water was rising, he took off with his family. It was already too late to leave by car, so he took them to a place where they could get a ride. Once he had his wife and kids safe in a relative’s house, he returned to his place with his cousin to protect his property, first ensuring it was safe to stay there (it wasn’t, but the option was worse).
Not everyone could or would do that, hence the high number of people being rescued, not to mention the dead and missing and the thousands getting stranded. Many bugged out to the shore where it was dry, and others were taken to encampments in safe locations by the authorities. Others refused to leave in fear of having their houses invaded and looted.
He was in his own house with water to the waist, no bed to sleep on, no shower, and no energy. When the night comes, everything gets pitch-black, dark, and silent. He heard people crying or screaming for help somewhere and dogs barking, and there was nothing he could do. Rats swam in the water. There were noises of stuff floating and cracking inside and outside his house from the water.
He didn’t know if the water would rise, if someone would show up with good or bad intentions, or what could happen. That first night was the longest and most terrifying night of his life, something he never thought he’d go through. He marched on and everything ended up fine, on that he considers himself lucky. It was different for hundreds or perhaps thousands, he says.
He told me he felt lucky to have his cousin with him and his 9mm on his side, otherwise, he’d have lost his mind that day. But he did his duty and defended his place and stuff, which is all they have. They were even able to rotate in the rescuing efforts as well, helping others (in even worse conditions) and being helpful. That effort contributed to keeping him going and his sanity.
In all events, big and small, taking place during a natural disaster, we’ll see heartwarming acts of selflessness happening side-by-side with despicable and hateful ones. Some people will throw themselves entirely into helping others, risking everything, including their most valuable assets – their time, energy, and lives – while others will seize the opportunity to profit and take advantage.
When things are this chaotic, not everything is clear-cut. It can be hard to tell evil from survival, making it hard to pass judgment on some stuff being reported if you’re not there. People got caught entering the homes and stores to loot, but some took food only because they had nothing to eat. We know what’s wrong, but what’s right?
Politicians and candidates flew to the region with camera crews to try and gather visibility; this year, there will be municipal elections. Influencers and artists are also trying to get a piece of the action and stay on the spotlight. Amidst all the controversy surrounding these characters and their actions, it’s a fact that many of them raised loads of donations, inspiring others and helping many. What if something is wrong but ends up making good?
Granted, not everyone will be able to say, “We’re still here” after a big catastrophe like that. And there are always a lot of people losing everything while millions of others get impacted in one way or another.
From the perspective of humankind, and as an engineer, I can’t help looking at disasters and other calamities as opportunities for future improvement. That’s how air travel became safer than crossing the street, among other modern achievements of civilization. In short, that’s how we evolve and get better collectively.
My friend has no idea what will become of him, his town, and the state. Based on history, I told him it would be challenging, but one day, everything will return to normal, they’ll emerge stronger, and there’s no reason to think differently. SHTF is so random, and our condition is so fragile. Our survival window can be wide, but the window of comfort is narrow. Stay safe, everyone.
Have you ever experienced a devastating flood or other natural disaster? Do you have some lessons to add or observations to share? Let’s discuss it in the comments section.
Fabian Ommar is a 50-year-old middle-class worker living in São Paulo, Brazil. Far from being the super-tactical or highly trained military survivor type, he is the average joe who since his youth has been involved with self-reliance and outdoor activities and the practical side of balancing life between a big city and rural/wilderness settings. Since the 2008 world economic crisis, he has been training and helping others in his area to become better prepared for the “constant, slow-burning SHTF” of living in a 3rd world country.
Fabian’s ebook, Street Survivalism: A Practical Training Guide To Life In The City , is a practical training method for common city dwellers based on the lifestyle of the homeless (real-life survivors) to be more psychologically, mentally, and physically prepared to deal with the harsh reality of the streets during normal or difficult times. He’s also the author of The Ultimate Survival Gear Handbook.
You can follow Fabian on Instagram @stoicsurvivor
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